Mardi 7 juin 2016 de 11h à 12h, Ziga Malek (Environmental Geography Group, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) présentera à la Tour du Valat (en grande salle) un séminaire en anglais intitulé "Mediterranean land systems: diversity, intensity and the future of land management in a dynamic region" ; l'accès est libre et sans inscription.
In the Mediterranean, cropland, forest and mosaic land systems of different intensities have been shaped gradually through centuries. These land systems provide services to a large and growing population in a region that is amongst most vulnerable to future global change.
To investigate the role of land systems in food security, biodiversity and water related issues in the Mediterranean region, we need to know their spatial extent and pattern. Representing Mediterranean land systems based on dominant land cover however fails to represent their diversity and intensity. To map them, a set of data on land cover, management intensity and livestock was combined in a geographic information system based approach. The focus was on grazing, cropland, forest and urban systems, with a special emphasis on agro-silvo-pastoral mosaic systems.
The spatial distribution of these systems is supported by existing literature, however no attempts have been made to systematically map them before. The Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in food supply and prices, with expected climate and socio-economic change possibly contributing to regional instability and conflicts. Moreover, the region is one of the global biodiversity hotspots with vast multi-functional mosaic areas.
Therefore, we simulate changes to the identified land systems to study different aspects of anticipated global change. The CLUMondo model is used, which enables a spatial allocation of future changes to land systems, considering their management intensity and potential to fulfill our demands for different ecosystem services. Future scenarios can be based on demands for annual and permanent crops, wood, livestock and space for urban expansion.
This way, we can explore consequences of intensifying traditional and extensive land systems, improving the agricultural efficiency, and study the tradeoffs of different land use processes in the region, such as : intensification and water use, abandonment of traditional land systems and biodiversity loss, urban expansion and increased pressure on coastal areas…
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